The time has come to remove the confusion that surrounds the subject of pot odds while also making the arithmetic easier, as some players have difficulty with concept and others stumble over the practical task of calculating them in the heat of the moment.
Calculating pot odds is an essential part of any poker player’s game. Without it there is no way of knowing whether the price paid to make a hand is worth it with respect to the amount that can be earned from other players once the hand is made. By understanding this fundamental relationship, skillful high percentage poker can be played as opposed to treating the game simply like another form of gambling.
The calculations involve comparing the total number of unknown cards with the cards required to complete a hand – the ‘outs’ – and then doing some really simple division.
For example, whenever you have a nut flush draw on the turn in a hold’em game, there are 46 unknown cards (53 minus your 2 cards and the 4 on the board). Out of these 46 cards, 37 will not help in making your hand but the any one of the remaining 9 which are the same suit as your draw will give you nut flush.
To calculate the odds simply divide the number of cards that will not help you by the number that will, in this case that is 37/9, making your odds 4.1 to 1. Playing percentage poker in this case will mean calling a bet only if the pot is four times the size of the bet.
For the kind of player who enjoys playing for inside straights or gut shots and other long-shot draws, these calculations do not bode well. The odds for hands like these to hit are almost abysmal considering on the turn there are only 4 outs as compared to the other 42 cards that won’t help at all. Doing the math, the chance of hitting such a draw is less than 9%. The same figure expressed in odds is 10.5 to 1, which translates the pot having to be more than 10 times the cost of the call in order to make it worthwhile. The odds against 2 pairs outdrawing a flush are almost exactly the same since only 4 cards will elevate the two pair to a full house and result in winning the hand. This leads to the obvious question of when can draws like this be chased? Plainly put, on two occasions and two only. The first, if the stakes being played are incredibly low considering the bankroll and the game is being played purely for fun and the money just doesn’t matter. The second, where the other players on the table are complete lunatics, whose collective motto is: “All bets called, all the time”. Keeping in mind the odds, more than 10 times the amount of the call would need to be won in order to justify this kind of draw. However, if the realistic possibility of winning a pot of Rs. 25,000 exists by calling an inside straight draw for Rs 2,000, there is no reason to fold… At all!
Most players however find it difficult to concentrate on the cards in play and their opponents while trying to do calculations at the poker table. Fortunately there are simplified methods that enable players to approximate the percentage of time that they’ll make their hand.
One such easy method is multiplying the outs by 2 and then adding 2 to that figure. The result is a rough percentage of the times that the hand will get made. For instance, if you have a flush draw on the turn, you have 9 outs. 9 times 2 equals 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20, which is the rough percentage of the times that you’ll hit the flush and is pretty close to the mathematically calculated figure of 19.6.
If you have only 4 outs, the quick proximate measure (4 outs x 2 + 2 = 10) is very close to the actual figure of 10.5. Similarly, if you have 15 outs, the quick measure yields a figure of 32, while the mathematically precise measure is 32.6.
Using these figures to play a hand right is now very easy. If you have a10% chance of winning the hand, a bet worth more than 10% of the pot’s total should not be called. However, if you have a 32% chance of winning, then a bet of up to one third the size of the pot can be called.
There is another easy method to estimate your chances on the flop without the need for much calculation. If you have up to 8 outs, quadruple them. 8 outs multiplied by 4 is 32 and while the accurate figure is 31.5%. With 4 outs, this method yields a result of 16, while the accurate figure is 16.5%.
For 9 outs, which is a common occurrence as it is the number of outs for a four-flush, quadruple the outs and subtract 1. The resulting figure of 35 is the same as the mathematically precise figure. This method can be used for calculating approximate percentages for up to 12 outs, though for 12 outs the resulting figure is 47, which is quite a bit removed from the exact figure of 45%.
For 13 to 16 outs quadruple the number of outs and subtract 4. The resulting figure will not differ from the mathematically calculated figure by more than 2 percentage points. A point to remember at this moment is that the second a hand has more than 14 outs, that hand becomes the odds-on favorite to win the pot and bets of any size become worthwhile.
While the two methods mentioned above are extremely easy and do not require players to spend too much time on calculating their odds, it is easier to just memorize the odds and not waste even a fraction of a second on such calculations. A chart is provided here that makes it easy to learn the odds against all of the common draws players are likely to come up against in a hold’em game.
Calculating pot odds is an essential part of any poker player’s game. Without it there is no way of knowing whether the price paid to make a hand is worth it with respect to the amount that can be earned from other players once the hand is made. By understanding this fundamental relationship, skillful high percentage poker can be played as opposed to treating the game simply like another form of gambling.
The calculations involve comparing the total number of unknown cards with the cards required to complete a hand – the ‘outs’ – and then doing some really simple division.
For example, whenever you have a nut flush draw on the turn in a hold’em game, there are 46 unknown cards (53 minus your 2 cards and the 4 on the board). Out of these 46 cards, 37 will not help in making your hand but the any one of the remaining 9 which are the same suit as your draw will give you nut flush.
To calculate the odds simply divide the number of cards that will not help you by the number that will, in this case that is 37/9, making your odds 4.1 to 1. Playing percentage poker in this case will mean calling a bet only if the pot is four times the size of the bet.
For the kind of player who enjoys playing for inside straights or gut shots and other long-shot draws, these calculations do not bode well. The odds for hands like these to hit are almost abysmal considering on the turn there are only 4 outs as compared to the other 42 cards that won’t help at all. Doing the math, the chance of hitting such a draw is less than 9%. The same figure expressed in odds is 10.5 to 1, which translates the pot having to be more than 10 times the cost of the call in order to make it worthwhile. The odds against 2 pairs outdrawing a flush are almost exactly the same since only 4 cards will elevate the two pair to a full house and result in winning the hand. This leads to the obvious question of when can draws like this be chased? Plainly put, on two occasions and two only. The first, if the stakes being played are incredibly low considering the bankroll and the game is being played purely for fun and the money just doesn’t matter. The second, where the other players on the table are complete lunatics, whose collective motto is: “All bets called, all the time”. Keeping in mind the odds, more than 10 times the amount of the call would need to be won in order to justify this kind of draw. However, if the realistic possibility of winning a pot of Rs. 25,000 exists by calling an inside straight draw for Rs 2,000, there is no reason to fold… At all!
Most players however find it difficult to concentrate on the cards in play and their opponents while trying to do calculations at the poker table. Fortunately there are simplified methods that enable players to approximate the percentage of time that they’ll make their hand.
One such easy method is multiplying the outs by 2 and then adding 2 to that figure. The result is a rough percentage of the times that the hand will get made. For instance, if you have a flush draw on the turn, you have 9 outs. 9 times 2 equals 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20, which is the rough percentage of the times that you’ll hit the flush and is pretty close to the mathematically calculated figure of 19.6.
If you have only 4 outs, the quick proximate measure (4 outs x 2 + 2 = 10) is very close to the actual figure of 10.5. Similarly, if you have 15 outs, the quick measure yields a figure of 32, while the mathematically precise measure is 32.6.
Using these figures to play a hand right is now very easy. If you have a10% chance of winning the hand, a bet worth more than 10% of the pot’s total should not be called. However, if you have a 32% chance of winning, then a bet of up to one third the size of the pot can be called.
There is another easy method to estimate your chances on the flop without the need for much calculation. If you have up to 8 outs, quadruple them. 8 outs multiplied by 4 is 32 and while the accurate figure is 31.5%. With 4 outs, this method yields a result of 16, while the accurate figure is 16.5%.
For 9 outs, which is a common occurrence as it is the number of outs for a four-flush, quadruple the outs and subtract 1. The resulting figure of 35 is the same as the mathematically precise figure. This method can be used for calculating approximate percentages for up to 12 outs, though for 12 outs the resulting figure is 47, which is quite a bit removed from the exact figure of 45%.
For 13 to 16 outs quadruple the number of outs and subtract 4. The resulting figure will not differ from the mathematically calculated figure by more than 2 percentage points. A point to remember at this moment is that the second a hand has more than 14 outs, that hand becomes the odds-on favorite to win the pot and bets of any size become worthwhile.
While the two methods mentioned above are extremely easy and do not require players to spend too much time on calculating their odds, it is easier to just memorize the odds and not waste even a fraction of a second on such calculations. A chart is provided here that makes it easy to learn the odds against all of the common draws players are likely to come up against in a hold’em game.
This chart shows odds against making your hand in hold'em with two cards to come (the turn and the river), as well as with one card (the river) remaining.
Chasing unprofitable draws can be a major flaw in a person’s game and for many it is the only reason that they are recurring losers as opposed to recurring winners. With the help of the two methods given above as well as the chart, all that needs to be done to avoid such play is calculating or approximating the pot size and comparing it with the size of the bet. It is actually that easy.
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